Bitcoin’s $126K Peak Could Signal Cycle End, Fidelity Warns

Fidelity's top strategist, Jurrien Timmer, has indicated that Bitcoin's October high of $126,000 might be the peak for the current cycle. Investors should prepare for potential volatility in 2026.

Timmer suggests possible support levels between $65,000 and $75,000 next year, predicting a significant pullback.
Historically, Bitcoin follows a four-year cycle correlated with halving events, often leading to corrections of 70-85% post-peak.
Past examples include the drop from $1,137 in 2013 to $230, and from $14,050 in 2017 to $3,415.

Long-Term Outlook and Market Behavior

Long-term log charts show percentage growth across cycles, highlighting parabolic advances followed by corrections and extended periods of sideways movement.
Galaxy Research remains optimistic about Bitcoin's future, projecting a potential rise to $250,000 by the end of 2027 despite short-term unpredictability.
Options markets suggest equal odds for Bitcoin reaching $70k or $130k by June 2026, and $50k or $250k by year-end 2027.

Market Dynamics and Expectations for 2026

The first quarter often supports price stability but recent years have shown irregular patterns.
Institutional demand versus whale supply will be critical in determining market trends in early 2026.
A pullback to the $65,000–$75,000 range would align with historical correction patterns, testing market resilience.

Investors are advised to monitor liquidity, derivatives flows, and spot buyer activity closely as these factors could influence market recovery after any downturns.