Bitcoin’s Next Major Peak Expected in October or November
Bitcoin's price is at a crucial juncture, with analysts predicting a major peak could occur in October or November. This follows a period described as “fragile stabilization.”
- 504 days have passed since the last Bitcoin halving.
- Market analysis indicates a mature phase of the bull cycle, similar to previous cycles.
- A significant spike occurred in March when Bitcoin reached $70,000, impacting long-term holder (LTH) spending.
- Subsequent distribution phases were noted near $98,000 and $117,000, but lacked March's intensity.
- Current selling by LTHs, supported by institutional demand, suggests a sustainable redistribution process.
- The "Peak Flag" signal, which appears when Bitcoin's spot price is about 11 times higher than the LTH realized price, may emerge between October and November, contingent on market activity.
Market Indicators
- Bitcoin trades just above the short-term holder cost basis around $111,000.
- Indicators show partial recovery, though trading volumes are low, indicating weak market conviction.
- Futures open interest has risen, but funding rates have decreased, reflecting a waning appetite for leveraged bullish positions.
- ETF net inflows are slowing, and overall market metrics show stability but fragility.
Bitcoin remains positioned for potential peaks later this year, according to Adler's late-cycle framework.