Bitcoin’s Price Aligns with Japanese Government Bond Yields
Weston Nakamura, founder of Across The Spread, identifies a significant macro relationship affecting Bitcoin (BTC). Key observations include:
- BTC is increasingly correlating with long-end Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields, particularly the 30-year bonds, rather than U.S. equities like the Nasdaq 100.
- Recent price movements of BTC align with rising JGB yields, both reaching record highs.
- Key events in 2024 could influence BTC prices, including the introduction of U.S.-listed spot BTC ETFs and Trump’s re-election.
- Nakamura emphasizes that this correlation is driven by Japan's market dynamics, not just U.S. Treasury (UST) yields.
- U.S. Treasury official Scott Bessent supports this view, stating UST yields are influenced by global factors, specifically Japan.
- This suggests that Japan may indirectly impact U.S. macro policy through its bond markets.
- Nakamura advises investors to closely monitor Japan's bond market due to its potential influence on various asset classes, including crypto, equities, and gold.