Bitwise CIO Declares Crypto’s Resilience Regardless of Election Outcome
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management, stated in an investor note that the crypto industry has established its presence in finance, regardless of the outcome of the US presidential election between President Donald Trump and Senator Kamala Harris. In his note titled "Crypto Has Already Won," he remarked, "There is nothing left to say about Tuesday’s election."
Hougan provided a brief analysis for investors: "Short-term, a Trump victory is better than a Harris victory. Long-term, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins will thrive regardless of who wins." He indicated that altcoins face greater regulatory risk under a Harris administration compared to a Trump administration. The most adverse scenario for crypto would be a Democratic sweep, which might empower anti-crypto factions within the party; however, he would still consider buying during downturns.
Reflecting on the industry's resilience over the past four years, Hougan noted, "If there’s one thing the past four years has taught me, it’s this: Washington can’t stop crypto. It can alter the trajectory, but it can’t stop it."
‘Crypto Has Already Won’
He presented statistics comparing November 2020 to November 2024: Bitcoin's price rose from $13,677 to $69,492 (408% increase), Ethereum from $388 to $2,492 (552% increase), and Solana from $1.49 to $165.12 (10,982% increase).
Trading volume also saw significant growth: CME Bitcoin Futures Open Interest increased from $0.57 billion to $10.58 billion (1,756% rise). The seven-day moving average of crypto daily exchange volume grew from $9.68 billion to $39.32 billion (306% increase), while decentralized exchange volume soared from $12.6 billion to $156.5 billion (11,142% increase).
Assets under management showed notable increases: Bitcoin spot ETF assets reached $71.46 billion by November 2024, up from none in November 2020. Stablecoin assets increased from $3.87 billion to $177.83 billion (4,495% rise), and total value locked in DeFi platforms grew from $9.57 billion to $139.3 billion (1,356% increase).
Network activity demonstrated substantial gains: monthly transactions on the Bitcoin network rose from 9.28 million to 20.48 million (121% increase), while Ethereum and Layer 2 solutions saw monthly transactions increase from 33.3 million to 385.8 million (1,059% increase).
Mainstream adoption indicators revealed crypto's integration into traditional finance: the number of top 20 asset managers with tokenized funds rose from none in 2020 to three in 2024. BlackRock's adoption of Bitcoin and Ethereum is a significant development in 2024.
Given these factors, Hougan expressed confidence in ongoing positive trends. He outlined expectations for continued inflows into spot crypto ETFs, rapid growth of stablecoins, institutional allocations to Bitcoin and crypto, Wall Street's embrace of tokenization, enhancements in blockchain efficiency, and the mainstream adoption of real-world applications like Polymarket.
While acknowledging the election's importance, Hougan downplayed its long-term effects on Bitcoin and crypto, stating, "What happens in Tuesday’s election matters, particularly in the short term. But over the long term, Tuesday will prove to be something between a speed bump and a wind gust. Neither is going to stop this train."
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $68,932.
