Dec 24, 2025
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Bitcoin’s 2026 Prospects Tied to US Liquidity and Macro Themes
Macro trader plur daddy argues that the setup for Bitcoin in 2026 is influenced more by US liquidity conditions than crypto-specific factors. He identifies key macro themes:
- Fed's Reserve Management Purchases (RMPs): The Fed's $40 billion/month RMPs aim to ease funding pressures, not stimulate a risk-on rally. This liquidity could shift conditions from tight to neutral.
- Fiscal Incrementality: A moderate widening of the deficit, predicted to expand by $12-15 billion/month starting January 1, could have an incremental impact despite the ongoing tariff effects.
- Disinflation and Policy Path: Lower inflation expectations set a "goldilocks" scenario, allowing potential interest rate cuts, with markets currently pricing in two cuts for the year.
- Political Influence on the Fed Chair: Trump's preference for loyalty might influence the nomination of Kevin Hassett as Fed chair, affecting markets, with gold potentially benefiting.
For Bitcoin, the outlook remains cautious but potentially positive if these macro elements align. Despite favoring gold, plur daddy suggests that improving liquidity conditions might offer opportunities for those considering bullish positions.
At press time, BTC traded at $87,053.
