Nov 27, 2025
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Bitcoin Breaks 50-Week MA, Analyst Predicts Possible Crash to $38,000
Crypto analyst Tony Severino reports that the Bitcoin price has fallen below the 50-week Moving Average (MA) for the first time in the current cycle, raising fears of a potential drop to $38,000. Historically, when Bitcoin has closed below the 50 MA, it has led to prolonged bear markets.
- Past bear markets saw declines of 61%, 59%, and 67% after dropping below the 50-week MA.
- If a similar 62% decline occurs, Bitcoin could fall to $38,000 from its current level of over $87,000, which is also a 70% drop from its all-time high above $126,000.
- The 50-week MA is considered a key indicator distinguishing bullish from bearish phases.
Momentum Indicators and Market Sentiment
Severino's analysis of Bitcoin’s daily LMACD reveals it is near levels not seen in over 1,250 days. Historically, this has marked periods of significant downward momentum before bottoming out.
- The LMACD indicator suggests market momentum has not yet reached extreme pessimism, indicating potential further corrections.
- Current market conditions are volatile, with Bitcoin trading below $87,000, reflecting a 24% decline over the past month.
