Bitcoin Implied Volatility Hits 42%, Highest Since Late August
Bitcoin's implied volatility (IV) has reached a 2.5-month high, consistent with seasonal trends.
- Volmex's bitcoin implied volatility index (BVIV) rose to over 42%, the highest since late August, indicating expectations for significant price swings.
- The rise in BVIV accompanies an increase in BTC's price, despite a recent pullback from over $126,000 to around $120,000.
Bullish Seasonality
- Historical data shows increased volatility in October, with significant spikes seen in both 2023 and 2024.
- CoinDesk Research notes similarities between the volatility setups of 2025 and 2023, predicting further increases in IV.
- Data from Coinglass indicates that Bitcoin often experiences a 6% average weekly gain during this period, with November historically providing over 45% returns on average.
Broader Inverse Relationship
- Since last year, BTC's IV tends to rise during price pullbacks, following Wall Street dynamics.
- Implied volatility shows a long-term downtrend as Bitcoin matures, indicating diminishing returns and declining volatility over time.