Jan 9, 2026
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Bitcoin Struggles Near $90K Amid Short-Term Holder Losses and Market Uncertainty
Bitcoin Price Dynamics:
- Bitcoin struggles to maintain the $90,000 level after rejection from $94,000 resistance.
- Volatility increases as market sentiment remains divided between a corrective phase and a potential upside attempt.
- Currently trading below major moving averages: 128-day, 200-day, and 365-day SMAs, indicating a bearish structure.
Short-Term Holder Risk and Market Behavior:
- BTC is in a moderate risk zone, positioned between the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis ($100,200) and a -15% downside boundary.
- Short-term rebounds are likely technical bounces unless BTC reclaims the STH Cost Basis.
- A break below the current range could increase selling pressure.
Market Value Insights:
- STH MVRV is at 0.92, below the historical mean of 1.09, indicating an 8% unrealized loss for short-term holders.
- Periods with STH MVRV below 1.0 often coincide with consolidation or capitulation phases.
- Reclaiming the $100,000 level is crucial for a shift back to a bullish market structure.
Technical Analysis:
- Bitcoin's price action indicates a fragile recovery, with failed breakout attempts above the $94,000–$95,000 zone.
- Current support turned pivot area is around $90,000–$91,000.
- The broader trend remains corrective, with lower highs since October and volume divergence during rebounds.
- A sustained move above $94,000–$95,000 with increased volume is necessary to reduce rejection risk and confirm strength.
