Bitcoin Short Traders Bet $1.4B Amid US Shutdown Speculation

The US is potentially facing its first government shutdown in seven years due to a deadlock over a $1.7 trillion spending bill. This could impact federal funding and economic stability, with non-essential services at risk.

  • Prediction markets indicate an 87% chance of a shutdown, with wagers nearing $2.5 million.
  • Gold prices rose by 0.6%, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.1%. The Dow Jones saw a slight decline of 0.022%.
  • Bitcoin is consolidating around $114,000 amid market caution.

Prediction markets show 87% Chance of US Government Shutdown | Source: Kalshi, Sept 30

Bitcoin Market Reaction

  • Bitcoin initially retraced under $113,500 but rebounded to $114,200.
  • Short traders deployed $1.4 billion, showing bearish sentiment due to the potential shutdown.
  • Top US firms hold significant Bitcoin reserves, entangling cryptocurrencies with US markets.

Top 100 Publicly US-listed Firms Holding Bitcoin, as of Sept. 30, 2025 | Source: BitcoinTreasuries

Bitcoin Price Forecast

  • Bitcoin trades within a rising wedge formation, indicating potential sharp movements.
  • A close above $115,000 could trigger a short covering rally toward $120,000.
  • Failure to break $115,000 might confirm bearish dominance, risking a drop to $95,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Price Analysis | Source: TradingView