Capriole Founder Declares End of Traditional Bitcoin Cycle
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole, claims the traditional four-year boom-and-bust cycle for Bitcoin is over. This change stems from a significant reduction in Bitcoin's annual supply growth since the April 2024 halving, now at approximately 0.8%. Key points include:
- Bitcoin's supply growth is now less than that of gold.
- Drawdowns of 80–90% historically linked to miner activity are no longer relevant.
- Investor behavior and macroeconomic factors can still trigger price fluctuations.
- Current liquidity conditions are positive, with expectations of three rate cuts by the Fed in 2025.
On-Chain Data Insights
On-chain indicators show no signs of euphoria typical at market peaks. Notable metrics include:
- Institutional purchases exceed 500% of Bitcoin's daily mining output.
- This has historically led to an average price surge of 135% after similar conditions.
- Market metrics indicate potential short-term caution due to overheating.
Quantum Computing Risks
Edwards highlights quantum computing as both a risk and an investment opportunity for Bitcoin. Key considerations are:
- Quantum computers could potentially compromise Bitcoin's security within 3–6 years.
- China's investments in quantum technology outpace those of the US.
- A transition to quantum-resistant systems could take up to 12 months.
In conclusion, while the miner-driven cycle is largely diminished, vigilance regarding institutional demand and balance-sheet choices is critical. Current BTC price stands at $119,121.
