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Crypto Analyst Assigns 91.5% Probability Bitcoin Bottom Is In
Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher predicts a 91.5% probability that Bitcoin's bottom is already in, based on four key factors:
- Market Reaction to News: Despite recent negative news, such as renewed Tether FUD and China banning crypto, Bitcoin's price has rallied, indicating strong market resilience.
- Historical FUD Behavior: Previous FUD events (Tether, China, BOJ, MicroStrategy) consistently marked local bottoms, contributing to a bullish outlook.
- Shift in Flows: Previously negative flows are stabilizing with ETF inflows increasing and OG whales reducing their sell-offs.
- Liquidity and Macro Environment: Global financial conditions are improving, with increased liquidity and the end of quantitative tightening.
Deutscher emphasizes the probabilistic nature of markets and acknowledges potential risks such as US market cooling, DAT pressures, and possible negative ETF flows. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $91,035.
