Crypto Market Entering Bear Territory as Bitcoin Drops Below 200-Day SMA

Coinbase's institutional research suggests the crypto market is entering a prolonged bear phase, following a bull run that may have ended. Key points include:

The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) for bitcoin indicates a bearish shift since March.
The COIN50 index has been in bear territory since late February.
Bitcoin remains below its 200-day SMA, a common indicator of long-term trends.
Market corrections over 20% are typical in both crypto and stock markets, but sentiment-driven declines can prompt defensive portfolio adjustments even without reaching this mark.
Duong emphasizes that bear markets represent shifts in market structure rather than just percentage declines.
A z-score model also confirms the end of the recent bull cycle in February, categorizing subsequent activity as "neutral."
Alternative cryptocurrencies may face harsher conditions due to a slowdown in venture capital funding, which is down 50%-60% compared to 2021-22 levels.
Duong predicts a potential market stabilization by mid-to-late Q2 2025, with improvements expected in Q3 2025.