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Macro Analyst Predicts Crypto Surge If Government Shutdown Resolves
Macro analyst Alex Krüger's roadmap outlines potential crypto market movements through December and projects positioning into 2026.
- The resolution of the U.S. government shutdown is pivotal. If resolved, it could lead to a "bullish" move for risk assets with BTC potentially increasing by 5% or more within 48 hours.
- The shutdown is expected to be resolved between late November and Thanksgiving, affecting market dynamics as December may introduce policy challenges.
- The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on December 10 is anticipated to be "hawkish," but changes in economic data could alter this outlook.
- The ongoing shutdown might delay economic data releases until December, possibly heightening market volatility once data resumes.
- A new Fed Chair nomination before or after the FOMC meeting could influence decisions, potentially supporting risk assets.
- Tax loss selling in December, particularly in the last two weeks, may exert bearish pressure on crypto due to underperformance compared to equities.
- The Supreme Court's decision on tariffs, expected in December or January, could impact market sentiment depending on the ruling.
- Looking ahead to 2026, the first half is projected to be bullish, driven by supportive fiscal and monetary policies.
- Tactically, there's speculation of a short-term BTC trade around the shutdown resolution, suggesting potential selling opportunities.
As of now, the total crypto market cap is $3.36 trillion.
