Crypto Market Volatility Expected as U.S. Payrolls Data Approaches
The crypto market is awaiting the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which could influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. Implied volatility indexes indicate moderate price fluctuations for major cryptocurrencies.
- Annualized one-day implied volatility index for BTC stands at 43.80, with a 24-hour expected price swing of 2.29%.
- Implied price swings for ETH, XRP, and SOL are 3.7%, 4%, and 4.86%, respectively.
- A stronger jobs report may hinder rapid Fed rate cuts, negatively affecting risk assets.
Derivatives Positioning
- Ether's open interest in USDT and dollar-denominated perpetual contracts fell to 1.93 million ETH, a four-week low, questioning the sustainability of its 18% gain.
- Open interest declined across most top tokens except for LINK and BTC; SOL's perpetual contracts slipped below 11 million SOL.
- BTC futures on CME remain subdued, while options activity increased with open interest rising to 47.23K BTC, the highest since April.
- Ether's futures open interest on CME dropped below 2 million ETH, but the three-month annualized premium increased from 5% to 7%.
- On Deribit, BTC puts trade at a premium to calls, indicating downside concerns.
- The seven-day volatility risk premium has nearly reached zero, showing no expectation of premium against future volatility spikes.
- Puts for ETH are trading at a premium to calls until end-November.
- Mixed OTC block flows include a BTC $116K call and an ether $4K put.
Token Talk
- The memecoin sector shows signs of decline after earlier hype around TRUMP and MELANIA, both down significantly since January.
- MemeCore, a new layer-1 blockchain, aims to transition memecoins into utility within DeFi, with its native token M rising 261% in a week.
- This surge coincides with the MemeX liquidity festival offering $5.7 million in rewards, primarily on PancakeSwap.
- Despite skepticism, this shift in memecoin sentiment highlights rapid changes in retail interest.
- Positive sentiment around MemeCore could affect the Solana-based platform Pump.fun, whose revenue has drastically decreased recently.