CryptoQuant Warns Bitcoin Could Drop to $92,000 Amid Diverging Analyst Views
Market Summary for Asia
As trading begins, bitcoin is above $104,500, showing minimal movement despite geopolitical tensions. Over the past week, BTC decreased by 2%. Analysts are divided on whether the current market stillness indicates strength or potential risks.
- Reports from CryptoQuant, Glassnode, and Flowdesk highlight low volatility and reduced retail participation.
- CryptoQuant warns BTC could revisit support levels of $92,000 or potentially drop to $81,000 due to declining demand.
- ETF flows have fallen over 60% since April; whale accumulation has halved, with short-term holders shedding around 800,000 BTC.
- Glassnode suggests low on-chain activity reflects network evolution, with significant transfers concentrated among institutions.
- Flowdesk views the market as "coiled," indicating possible future directional movements without clear predictions.
Crypto Treasury Companies Analysis
A report from Presto Research states that Crypto Treasury Companies (CTCs) like Strategy and Metaplanet carry less risk than perceived. Key points include:
- CTCs utilize financial tools such as perpetual preferred shares to fund BTC accumulation without margin risk.
- Strategy's BTC is unpledged, reducing collateral liquidation concerns seen in past failures.
- The challenge lies in managing dilution and cash flow effectively.
Semler Scientific's Bitcoin Acquisition Plan
Semler Scientific aims to hold 105,000 BTC by 2027, significantly increasing its current stash of 4,449 BTC. Their strategy involves:
- Equity raises, debt financing, and operational cash flow to acquire BTC.
- Reliance on trading at a premium to net asset value (NAV) to fund acquisitions, currently valued below NAV.
- Despite BTC price increases, Semler shares have declined nearly 40% this year.
Market Movements
- BTC: Trading below $105K, facing resistance at $105,150 amidst macro volatility.
- ETH: Support at $2,490 following a selloff; potential breakout if resistance at $2,510 is surpassed.
- Gold: Stable around $3,366 amid geopolitical tensions; platinum has retreated after recent highs.
- Nikkei 225: Opened 0.24% higher as regional markets rose ahead of China's loan prime rate decision.