Dogecoin Faces Potential Plunge Amid Extreme On-Chain Risk Levels

Dogecoin is currently at a critical juncture, as per recent analysis by Cryptollica. The analysis combines a multi-year price channel with the Reserve Risk framework to assess long-term holder conviction versus market pricing.

Key Points:

The Dogecoin model uses Reserve Risk, calculated as Price divided by HODL Bank, which indicates long-term holders' opportunity cost for not selling during earlier rallies.
Low Reserve Risk values suggest attractive risk/reward zones, while high values indicate overheated conditions.
Historically, low Reserve Risk coincides with value zones, whereas high readings align with price peaks, like the 2021 surge to $0.76.
As of November 17, 2025, Reserve Risk shows Dogecoin in the "extreme value" zone, suggesting historically cheap prices relative to the HODL Bank.

Price Analysis:

Current DOGE/USDT trading within an ascending channel since 2021, with key boundaries at $0.07 and $1.30.
A two-year moving average was lost during the bear phase but reclaimed in 2024-2025, peaking at $0.48 before facing resistance near $0.27.
Recent price decline below the moving average suggests potential further descent to around $0.07 if support at $0.15 breaks.

Overall, Dogecoin's structural weakness contrasts with its favorable on-chain metrics, presenting a complex investment scenario. At the time of reporting, DOGE trades at $0.157.