Election Day Arrives with Potential Impact on Crypto Markets
Election day is here. This morning, Donald Trump leads on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, with data from 538 indicating even odds.
The crypto market is also in a wait-and-see mode, according to GSR research analyst Toe Bautista, who believes bitcoin remains resilient regardless of the election outcome. Analysts suggest that there may not be a significant rally once a winner is announced, though a slight movement could occur if Trump wins.
Bautista notes that many firms are hesitant to launch new tokens until they see how the election unfolds. Concerns about potential SEC lawsuits discourage capital deployment. A Trump victory might reduce extreme risk scenarios associated with SEC chair Gary Gensler's actions over the past two years.
While Bautista acknowledges that achieving an all-time high in Q4 is challenging, he does not rule out bitcoin reaching $80,000. He emphasizes focusing on macro conditions in the first and second quarters of next year as crucial for driving bitcoin prices higher.
Bautista concludes by stating that today's election results will significantly impact market direction.