Equities Rally as Rate-Cut Bets Rise, Crypto Remains Cautious
Market Summary
Crypto traders are cautious ahead of Thursday’s U.S. CPI report. Current prices are:
- Bitcoin (BTC) above $111,600
- Ethereum (ETH) at $4,298
- CD20 index at 4,000, up 1.6%
The August Nonfarm Payrolls reported only 22,000 jobs added, below the expected 75,000, leading to higher futures and lower 2-year Treasury yields. Crypto markets remain rangebound, diverging from broader risk sentiment.
Key points include:
- Options markets indicate a defensive stance with short-dated implied vols elevated.
- ETH shows a 70% chance of staying above $4,600 this month but only a 13% chance of exceeding $5,600.
- SOL's odds of reaching a new all-time high before 2026 have increased.
Market maker Enflux highlights the SEC’s evolving token sale rules and institutional adoption as signs of crypto's deeper integration into traditional finance. Speculation remains prevalent, demonstrated by WLFI's recent wallet freezes due to phishing issues.
Onchain data indicates that governance actions can impact market confidence, raising concerns among major stakeholders.
Market Movement
- BTC: Holding steady above $111K, with potential for breakout but caution about a pullback to $100K.
- ETH: Trading around $4.3K, reflecting subdued demand and current market positioning.
- Gold: Surged to ~$3,636/oz amid expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and geopolitical concerns.
- Nikkei 225: Rose 0.9% to a record high, boosted by fiscal stimulus hopes.
- S&P 500: Increased 0.2% as investors anticipate inflation data and potential Fed rate cuts.
Elsewhere in Crypto
- Upbit Parent files ‘GIWA’ trademarks amid blockchain launch rumors.
- Trump's evolving stance on crypto could influence future policies.
- Kalshi reports $875 million in August trading volume, increasing competition with Polymarket.