BULLISH 📈 : Fidelity says Bitcoin may avoid past cycle crashes

Fidelity Digital Assets suggests that the traditional four-year cycle of Bitcoin, characterized by significant drawdowns, may be changing. Key points from their research note include:

Bitcoin's market cap is at an all-time high of approximately $2.5 trillion as of October 2025, with reduced volatility compared to previous cycles.
Volatility has decreased even as Bitcoin prices reached new highs above $126,000.
One-year realized volatility hit 17 new lows in January 2026, shortly after Bitcoin achieved fresh all-time highs, indicating a divergence from past patterns.
A group of 49 public companies holds over 1 million BTC, representing more than 5% of the circulating supply.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024 and now hold nearly 1.3 million BTC, about 6.4% of the circulating supply.
Public companies and ETFs collectively hold nearly 12% of the circulating supply, reflecting a structural demand shift impacting drawdowns.
The Profit to Volatility Ratio, a stability measure, has remained above 0.015 since late 2023, suggesting greater market stability despite recent downturns.
Fidelity argues this evolving market structure might lead to fewer dramatic price drops and a more gradual repricing.

At present, BTC is trading at $66,677.

Bitcoin price chart