Jan 13, 2026
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Fidelity Suggests Bitcoin May Enter a Supercycle with Prolonged Highs
Fidelity Labs managing partner, Parth Gargava, suggests that Bitcoin may be entering a "supercycle," potentially altering its traditional four-year halving cycle. This could lead to more sustained high prices and milder declines if structural demand strengthens.
- Historically, Bitcoin's price peaks have occurred approximately 18 months post-halving, as seen after the 2016 and 2020 halvings.
- Gargava proposes an evolving market structure, with arguments favoring a supercycle characterized by prolonged highs and shallower dips.
- The "supercycle mechanism" is likened to multi-year commodity cycles, suggesting sustained demand can modify market behavior.
Three Potential Drivers of a Bitcoin Supercycle
- Institutional Buy-in via ETFs: ETFs provide steady capital flow, possibly altering typical post-peak patterns.
- Pro-Crypto Policies: Supportive US regulatory policies may reduce risks and broaden investor participation.
- Market Maturation: As the crypto market matures, it diverges from traditional assets, affecting trading behavior and narrative.
Gargava does not claim the four-year cycle is obsolete but presents a question for 2026: Will Bitcoin continue its post-halving boom-bust pattern, or will new structural forces support a more stable growth phase?
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $92,182.
