Glassnode Analyzes Bitcoin’s Short-Term Options Dynamics Amidst Rally

Bitcoin's recent rise to $97,600 sparked notable options activity. However, Glassnode highlighted that this was more about short-dated positioning rather than a strong market conviction.

  • Despite an 8% BTC price increase mid-January, the 1-week 25-delta skew shifted from put bias to neutral, suggesting a temporary bullish sentiment.
  • The options volume put/call ratio decreased from 1 to 0.4, indicating increased call activity, but primarily in short-term positions.
  • Longer-term metrics showed less enthusiasm, with the 1-month 25-delta skew moving slightly and remaining put-biased.
  • The 3-month 25-delta skew had minimal change, maintaining a downside risk position.
  • Implied volatility data reflected gamma sellers taking profits during the rally, not typical of sustained market breakouts.

For a genuine breakout, Glassnode suggests watching for:

  • Spot prices pressing key levels
  • Skew showing conviction across maturities
  • Volatility being bought rather than sold

Currently, BTC is trading at $89,297. Traders should monitor longer-dated skew and implied volatility as indicators of potential market shifts.

Bitcoin price chart