Grayscale Highlights Macro Tailwinds and Risks for Crypto in Q4 2025
The current crypto bull market is influenced by macro demand for scarce digital assets and increasing regulatory clarity, as per a report by Grayscale. Key factors include:
- The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates in September, with potential further cuts by year-end, supporting digital assets.
- Lower borrowing costs reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yield-bearing assets like bitcoin, encouraging broader market risk appetite.
- Caution regarding economic slowdown or geopolitical risks impacting valuations.
- Potential Fed rate hikes pose a downside risk.
Regulatory developments that could impact investor focus include:
- Introduction of staking within crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs).
- Approval of new altcoin-based ETPs.
- Possible Senate passage of a market structure bill.
Grayscale notes that while these developments are positive, much optimism is already priced in. Delays or rejections could negatively affect valuations.