Iran’s Probability of Closing Strait of Hormuz Rises to 52% After Airstrikes
The likelihood of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz has increased due to recent U.S. airstrikes on its nuclear facilities.
- Shares for the Polymarket contract "Will Iran Close the Strait of Hormuz before June 30" are trading at 40 cents, indicating a 40% probability, up from 14% on Saturday.
- Odds of the Strait being closed by the end of the year rose to 52%, from 33% previously.
- About 20 million barrels of oil, roughly 20% of global consumption, pass through the Strait daily.
- A closure could lead to significant oil price increases; JPMorgan analysts predict prices could reach $120 to $130 per barrel.
- This spike, combined with ongoing trade tensions, may result in stagflation, negatively affecting financial assets, including cryptocurrencies.
- Despite these developments, the cryptocurrency market remains stable, with bitcoin trading above $100,000.
President Trump confirmed the airstrikes destroyed three key Iranian nuclear facilities and urged Iran to pursue peace.
