PlanB Questions Reliability of Bitcoin’s Traditional Four-Year Cycle

The stock-to-flow model creator, PlanB, suggests that Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle linked to halvings may not reliably predict future price peaks. He emphasizes the uncertainty of timing for the next peak, which could occur between 2026 and 2028, focusing more on Bitcoin's average price than specific highs or lows.

Key Points

PlanB argues that relying on past cycles for prediction is risky since just three cycles don't form a robust statistical pattern.
Some market participants mistakenly believe $126,000 was a peak and expect BTC to fall below $100,000 next year.
The last bull run was driven by short-term paper derivative markets, whereas current conditions show stronger spot buying.
Bitcoin recently fell below $103,000, causing bearish sentiment; however, it recovered slightly to about $107,000.

Market Dynamics

PlanB notes no clear "phase transition" in this cycle, suggesting either an upcoming institutional-driven price jump or a shift to a steadier regime.
Short-term volatility persists, impacting trader sentiment and highlighting the need for stronger fundamentals or sustained flows.

In conclusion, while there are shifts in market dynamics and sentiment, Bitcoin's long-term demand factors remain positive.