Polymarket Traders Assign 21% Odds of Bitcoin Reaching $150,000 in 2026

Polymarket traders exhibit skepticism regarding Bitcoin's potential to reach $150,000 this year. They estimate a 45% chance of BTC hitting $120,000, below its all-time high.

Bitcoin Price Projections

35% probability of reaching $130,000
28% chance of hitting $140,000
21% possibility of achieving $150,000
80% likelihood of reaching $100,000

The cautious outlook is influenced by the end of Bitcoin's four-year cycle and its previous year's performance. Currently, BTC's market value stands at $89,082.34, with a 24-hour trading volume of $21.96 billion after a 31.16% dip.

Institutional Interest in Bitcoin

Metaplanet acquired 4,279 BTC in Q4 2025, totaling 35,102 BTC, worth approximately $3.1 billion.
Tether increased its holdings by 8,889 BTC, valued at $778.7 million, as Bitcoin dipped below $88,000.

These institutional purchases could influence a future Bitcoin price surge.