Polymarket Odds for U.S. Strike on Iran Drop to 46%
Traders on Polymarket have reduced expectations for U.S. military action against Iran. The probability of a strike by June 30 is now 46%, down from a peak of 66.9%.
- Decrease attributed to reports of potential diplomatic talks between the U.S. and Iran.
- A meeting may occur this week between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
- Recent Israeli airstrikes targeted Iranian military and nuclear sites, prompting retaliation from Tehran.
In response, Bitcoin fell to $102,750 but has since recovered to $106,700. Futures for the S&P 500 are down 0.7%.
The Trump administration has not officially commented on the situation. Trump emphasized that Iran should not obtain a nuclear weapon.