Polymarket Shows 70% Chance of U.S.-Canada Trade War Ending by May
The likelihood of the U.S.-Canada trade war ending by May is estimated at 70%, as per a Polymarket contract. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick indicated President Trump is open to negotiations.
Key points:
- Canada and Mexico are facing 25% tariffs on all products entering the U.S.
- Trump cited national security threats from fentanyl trafficking and illegal immigration.
- Lutnick suggested potential negotiation pathways, with market odds rising by 20% shortly afterward.
- Lutnick expects a mutual agreement announcement soon.
- Crypto markets reacted positively, with Bitcoin rising 1.5% to above $87,000.
- The CoinDesk 20 index increased by 2% following this news.