Billionaire Ray Dalio Doubts Bitcoin Will Be Central Bank Reserve

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has expressed caution about Bitcoin as an asset for official reserves, despite acknowledging its scarcity. He notes Bitcoin's money-like qualities but raises concerns about its transparency and potential government interference.

Key Points

Dalio is wary of Bitcoin's public transaction records, suggesting they make it unsuitable for reserve managers compared to gold.
Concerns include the traceability and vulnerability of Bitcoin transactions, which may be interrupted by governments.
He views gold as more secure once removed from formal financial systems, unlike Bitcoin.
Stablecoins are seen as useful for transactions but not long-term holdings due to ties to fiat currencies and lack of interest.
Dalio holds a small personal exposure to Bitcoin but prioritizes gold for protection against state actions.

Crypto markets are aligning more with mainstream finance through initiatives like spot Bitcoin ETFs. Market trends suggest Bitcoin behaves more like a macro asset than a speculative one.

Galaxy Research highlights Bitcoin's complex forecast for 2026 due to overlapping macro and market risks.
Despite uncertainties, Galaxy predicts Bitcoin might reach $250,000 by the end of 2027.

This analysis underscores the divide between Bitcoin's policy suitability and its market price potential, with differing focuses from Dalio and market analysts.