Swan Predicts Major Bitcoin Re-Pricing Amid Low Volatility
As of June 5, Bitcoin is priced at approximately $105,000, exhibiting its lowest realized volatility in nearly two years. Swan, a financial services firm focused on Bitcoin, suggests that a significant market re-pricing may be imminent.
The Last Chance To Buy?
Swan argues that the typical four-year boom-and-bust cycle is evolving into a “last rotation,” characterized by:
- Transfer of coins from retail speculators to long-term institutional investors
- Exit of short-term traders and entry of corporate treasuries and ETFs
- Shift from speculation to allocation among newer buyers
- Generational change as Millennials begin accumulating wealth in Bitcoin
Despite 2025 not following historical patterns of sharp price movements, Swan indicates that current price stability could conceal an underlying supply squeeze. Long-term holders are taking profits above $100,000 while new institutional buyers absorb available supply. This shift is expected to remove coins from circulation.
Swan emphasizes that these changes are irreversible due to current supply dynamics. The combination of long-term capital and limited supply could lead to explosive price increases. Additionally, macroeconomic factors such as a weakening US dollar and rising bond yields could further drive demand for Bitcoin as a store of value.
The firm warns that selling now means potentially passing Bitcoin to institutions committed to holding it indefinitely, suggesting that current tranquility could precede a significant liquidity event where the marginal seller disappears, pushing prices higher.
At press time, Bitcoin trades at $104,605.
