Tiger Research Sets Bitcoin Q3 Price Target at $190,000

Tiger Research has set a Q3 price target of $190,000 for bitcoin. The forecast is based on:

Record global liquidity and M2 money supply exceeding $90 trillion
ETF and corporate accumulation accounting for 6% of bitcoin's supply
Access to crypto through U.S. retirement accounts following regulatory approval

The model starts with a base price of $135,000, adding multipliers for fundamentals (+3.5%) and macro conditions (+35%). This represents a potential 67% increase from the current average of $113,000.

Tiger Research highlights that:

ETFs hold 1.3 million BTC, with Strategy (MSTR) owning over 629,000 coins
A 1% allocation from the $8.9 trillion 401(k) market could generate nearly $90 billion in demand
Transaction volumes show larger sizes but fewer transactions, indicating institutional activity

However, the report notes some concerns:

Daily transactions and active users are below last year’s highs
Retail participation has declined, necessitating new initiatives like BTCFi
On-chain metrics suggest caution, with MVRV-Z at 2.49, indicating potential corrections
ASOPR at 1.019 shows modest gains being locked in by traders
NUPL at 0.558 reflects a healthy market position without excessive exposure