Top Lessons from 2024 Featured in Forward Guidance Newsletter
Before discussing 2025, this segment reflects on notable interviews and key insights from 2024.
Insights from Notable Interviews
Warren Mosler, a pioneer of modern monetary theory (MMT), shared his views on the current economic climate. He argued that high interest rates exacerbate inflation rather than mitigate it, as elevated debt levels result in significant interest payments to Treasury holders, effectively acting as income. Mosler believes that for inflation to decrease, the Federal Reserve needs to cut rates.
Jeff Park, head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise, discussed options and derivatives, particularly in relation to US spot bitcoin ETFs. He noted that crypto options marketplaces like Deribit operate 24/7, while ETF options adhere to traditional market hours, leading to price discrepancies. Longer trading times increase the probability of options expiring in the money, thus raising option prices.
Dr. Stephen Miran, a fellow at the Manhattan Institute and former US Treasury employee, provided insights into the economic impact of potential tariffs under Trump’s trade policies. He emphasized tariffs as a necessary tool to address the Triffin’s Dilemma, which concerns the implications of the US dollar being the global reserve currency.
George Robertson, a veteran macro trader, presented an unconventional perspective: the Federal Reserve's influence on the economy is primarily psychological rather than mechanical. His views challenge traditional understandings of economic policy effects.
These interviews highlighted unique perspectives from leading thinkers in their fields.