Jan 20, 2026
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Trader Chifoi suggests Bitcoin’s January pivot may signal market direction
- Bitcoin's price has dropped by 36% from its recent peak, sparking "bear market" discussions.
- Trader Cristian Chifoi suggests the real signal is not the drop itself but what follows after a rebound and during specific seasonal windows.
- Chifoi uses a cross-check between Bitcoin and USDT dominance as an indicator, emphasizing timing over immediate price movements.
- He mentions that a 77-day correction has occurred, indicating a potential signal rather than noise.
- Two possible scenarios:
- Bitcoin bounces to over $100k without sustained momentum, indicating a possible weak countertrend.
- Bitcoin reaches a higher high ($115,000–$120,000) but stalls, potentially signaling a bear-market transition.
- Chifoi focuses on January 20th (plus/minus a few days) as a significant decision point for Bitcoin's direction.
- He identifies two groups of market participants: those predicting a supercycle and those seeing a cycle break or bear market onset.
- Chifoi's risk scenario involves a new high followed by a decline into late 2026 or early 2027.
- At press time, BTC traded at $92,836.
