US Spot Bitcoin ETFs See $520 Million Inflow Amid Market Shift

US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a substantial inflow of $520 million on Tuesday, contrasting with a $1.15 million inflow the previous day and $1.22 billion in recent withdrawals. Such inflows have historically driven significant price increases.

Diminishing Golden Curves Model

The model uses logarithmic regression to map price bands and deviation levels from a "Golden Curve" growth path.
Previous cycle tops were at +5 in November 2013, +4 in December 2017, and +3 in November 2021.
The next top is projected near the +2 band, estimating a range of $160,000 to $170,000, potentially reaching $186,000.
This suggests a possible 70% increase from current levels around $104,000.

Halving Rhythm Influence

The chart incorporates halving-based sine waves.
The last halving was in April 2024, with an expected market peak in late 2025, aligning with historical patterns.

Stablecoin and Exchange Reserves

Stablecoin supply ratio is low, indicating potential market lows and available investment capital.
Binance data shows rising stablecoin reserves and declining Bitcoin reserves, suggesting accumulation by long-term holders.
Increased liquidity and low volatility present attractive risk-reward opportunities for buyers.

Market Conditions and Risks

Market conditions may change rapidly due to economic data and events like the end of the US government shutdown.
Models like Diminishing Golden Curves rely on historical repetition, which might not apply if major disruptions occur.