US Bitcoin Reserve Adoption Unlikely Amid Political and Economic Challenges
The possibility of the United States adopting Bitcoin as a financial reserve is uncertain, with prediction markets showing declining confidence. Experts cite political and economic challenges, while skeptics doubt feasibility under Donald Trump’s administration. Despite growing support, significant hurdles hinder Bitcoin's inclusion in US financial strategy.
Prediction platforms provide contrasting views. On Polymarket, users estimate only a 29% chance of Trump introducing a Bitcoin reserve within his first 100 days, down from 60% optimism after the election. This decline reflects skepticism about Bitcoin's role in US financial policy. Supporters argue that Bitcoin could complement existing reserves like gold and oil for financial stability, but critics highlight political resistance and complex economic conditions as major obstacles.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, doubts Bitcoin adoption as a reserve asset under Trump, suggesting it would require a serious threat to US economic dominance. He compares current Bitcoin advocates to past proponents of the gold standard, noting historical resistance to relying on a single asset for economic security, even during late 1990s calls for reinstating the gold standard.
Ju indicates that Trump’s stance on Bitcoin could change based on economic priorities. He remarked that if Trump successfully reinforces the dollar’s supremacy and boosts approval ratings, he may not maintain his pro-Bitcoin position from the campaign. Trump could shift priorities without losing voter support.
Despite skepticism, advocates emphasize Bitcoin’s potential benefits. Mathew Sigel of VanEck proposed that a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could reduce US national debt by up to 36% by 2050. Sigel envisions Bitcoin as a dominant settlement currency in global trade, particularly for countries avoiding US sanctions, which could reshape global financial systems through decentralized and transparent international transactions.
Prediction platform Kalshi places the odds of Bitcoin adoption as a reserve asset by 2026 at 56%, indicating that while unlikely in the short term, it remains plausible in the medium term. Advocates argue that Bitcoin’s decentralized nature offers a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks, making it an appealing reserve option.
While Bitcoin's future in US reserves remains unclear, the ongoing debate mirrors broader discussions about the evolving global financial system. Political will, economic priorities, and external pressures will ultimately determine whether Bitcoin achieves status alongside traditional reserve assets. Currently, skepticism prevails, but advocates remain optimistic about Bitcoin's potential.