U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Increase by 151,000 in February
In February, the U.S. employment market showed solid strength despite a slight increase in the unemployment rate:
- Nonfarm payrolls rose by 151,000, below the forecast of 160,000.
- January's payroll growth was revised down to 125,000 from 143,000.
- The unemployment rate increased to 4.1%, higher than expected and January's 4.0%.
Following the report, Bitcoin spiked above $90,000 but fluctuated around that level. The S&P 500 saw minor gains pre-market, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield fell to 4.24%. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) reached its lowest since early November before recovering.
Market movements are influenced by the upcoming White House Crypto Summit, with potential announcements generating anticipation. Current trading suggests BTC may remain between $85,000 and $95,000 over the weekend.
Recent developments have led to a nearly 50% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut by May and almost 90% by June. A report indicated 172,000 job cuts in February, the highest since July 2020, primarily due to actions taken by the Department of Government Efficiency. The GDPNow model predicts a 2.4% contraction in the U.S. economy for Q1 2025, contrasting sharply with analyst growth estimates exceeding 2%.
This economic slowdown poses challenges for the Fed, which may need to ease monetary policy to stimulate growth amid persistent inflation, with headline rates at 3% and core rates at 3.3% in January.