VanEck Projects Bitcoin Could Reach $180,000 Post-Election and $3 Million by 2050
As Bitcoin rebounds towards the $70,000 mark, Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, discussed the cryptocurrency's potential trajectory influenced by the upcoming US presidential election and economic factors in a CNBC interview.
Bitcoin Recovery Factors
Sigel noted a correlation between Donald Trump's lead in betting polls against Vice President Kamala Harris and Bitcoin's rise. He characterized Trump as pro-crypto, suggesting his policies may favor the cryptocurrency market, while expressing skepticism about Harris’s understanding of Bitcoin.
Exploring Bitcoin's price dynamics, Sigel identified a negative correlation with the US dollar and a positive correlation with M2 money supply growth, contributing to the current uptrend. He attributed the recent price recovery to the Federal Reserve's shift towards increasing M2 growth and noted "seller exhaustion" in the BTC market.
Additionally, Sigel pointed out a favorable bullish setup for Bitcoin as the election nears, particularly its rising correlation with the Nasdaq, which has reached a two-year high of 1.5. He recalled a similar pattern from the 2020 elections when Bitcoin showed low volatility until the outcome was announced, followed by a substantial rally as new buyers entered the market. “New buyers are born every day,” he stated, indicating consistent interest in Bitcoin.
Discussing Bitcoin's relationship with gold and M2, Sigel referred to Bitcoin as a "chameleon," highlighting its shifting correlations that complicate predictions of its behavior.
Future Price Predictions
Sigel also addressed the impact of recent activities within the BRICS intergovernmental organization, noting new members like Argentina, the UAE, and Ethiopia leveraging resources for Bitcoin mining. These countries aim to counter what he termed the "irresponsible" fiscal policies of the US.
Regarding future price points for BTC, Sigel explained that historical rallies have seen increases of around 2,000%. If Bitcoin achieves half of that post-election, it could reach approximately $180,000. Looking ahead, a model from VanEck predicts Bitcoin may serve as a global trade reserve asset held by central banks at a rate of 2%, suggesting a price of $3 million per Bitcoin by 2050.
Currently, BTC is trading at $68,900, reflecting a 1.7% increase over the past 24 hours.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com.