VanEck Predicts Bitcoin Consolidation and Miner Transformation in 2026

VanEck's latest crypto outlook suggests Bitcoin will enter 2026 with mixed signals. The likelihood of consolidation is higher than a dramatic rise or crash.

Bitcoin's realized volatility has halved since the last cycle, implying smaller cyclical drawdowns (~40% vs. ~80% previously).
The four-year cycle, peaking post-U.S. election, remains intact, suggesting 2026 as a year for market digestion.

Key Factors Influencing Bitcoin's Outlook

Global Liquidity: Rate cuts may help, but U.S. liquidity faces challenges from AI capex and a fragile funding market.
System Leverage: Reset after several market washouts.
On-chain Activity: Currently soft but showing signs of improvement.

VanEck recommends a disciplined 1–3% allocation to Bitcoin through dollar-cost averaging and opportunistic purchases.

2026 Trade: Miners Transitioning to AI/HPC Providers

Bitcoin miners are expanding hash rates and building AI/HPC data-center capacity.
Public miners plan to increase capacity from ~7 GW in early 2025 to ~16 GW by 2026 and ~20 GW by 2027, with a significant portion for AI/HPC workloads.
Miners with secured power and strong HPC economics are expected to lead consolidation cycles akin to 2020–2021.

Stablecoins and Digital Payments: Targeted Opportunities

B2B flows can reduce cross-border costs and enhance working-capital cycles.
Fintech and e-commerce operators embedding stablecoin rails may benefit near-term.
Stablecoin use cases currently favor cross-border B2B transactions.

Consolidation Outlook Justification

Lower Volatility: BTC volatility has decreased, suggesting smaller drawdowns.
Intact Cycle Structure: Post-election peaks and recent highs align with historical patterns.
Leverage Reset and On-chain Activity: Past deleveraging reduces fragility; on-chain activity is improving.