Bitcoin Price Recovers to $110,000 Amid Weak Network Adoption
Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded from lows around $108,760 to over $110,000. However, weak on-chain activity suggests limited recovery potential.
- Price momentum is declining with RSI nearing oversold territory and a bearish MACD.
- Spot CVD at -$199 million indicates sellers dominate, and daily active addresses have decreased to 692K.
- The CoinDesk 20 and CoinDesk 80 indices fell by 2% and 1.7%, respectively.
Derivatives Positioning
- $940 million in futures liquidations occurred in the last 24 hours, primarily from long positions, including $320 million in Ether.
- Open interest (OI) in BTC remains high at over 740K BTC; Ether's OI decreased to 14 million ETH.
- OI for SOL, XRP, DOGE, ADA, and LINK also dropped, indicating capital outflows.
- Funding rates for most tokens are positive, suggesting bullish sentiment persists.
- OI in CME-standard BTC futures declined to 137.3K from 145.2K, showing low institutional trading interest.
- CME Ether futures OI is stable at 2.05 million ETH, close to recent highs.
- On Deribit, upcoming expiries show a bias towards BTC puts, reflecting concerns about price declines.
- OTC desk flows include mixed strategies for both BTC and ETH.
Token Talk
- Top NFT collections saw significant weekly losses as Ether retraced from highs, impacting project values by over 10%.
- Pudgy Penguins dropped 17% to a 10.32 ETH floor; BAYC lost 14.7% to 9.59 ETH.
- Doodles fell 18.9% to 0.73 ETH, with secondary projects like Moonbirds and Lil Pudgys also declining.
- CryptoPunks were more resilient, losing only 1.35%, maintaining status as a defensive asset.
- Despite lower floors, trading volume remained strong; Pudgy Penguins led with 2,112 ETH traded.
- NFT market capitalization decreased nearly 5% to $7.7 billion, down from $9.3 billion.
- The disparity between stable CryptoPunks and declining newer collections highlights its appeal as a collateral asset.
- Recent sell-offs indicate that NFT blue chips act as high-beta proxies for ETH, with legacy projects like CryptoPunks providing more stability for long-term investment.