Polymarket Bettors See Low Odds for Trump’s Fed Dismissals This Year
Prediction markets indicate skepticism regarding Donald Trump's ability to influence the Federal Reserve, particularly in light of his attempts to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Key points include:
- On Polymarket, the chance of Jerome Powell being removed as Fed Chair by 2025 is estimated at 10%.
- Market sentiment shows a 27% probability of Cook's removal by year-end, suggesting she may withstand challenges despite Trump's claims of misconduct.
- Historical pressures on the Fed from past presidents are noted, with examples from Truman, Johnson, and Nixon illustrating political interference with monetary policy.
- If Trump were to successfully remove Powell, it could lead to easier monetary policies, potentially benefiting risk assets and bitcoin.
- Despite the news, bitcoin showed minimal movement, rising only 0.3% immediately after the announcement but still down 2.6% for the day.
- The CoinDesk 20 index is trading below 4,000, down 5.3% by midday in Hong Kong.