Feb 25, 2026
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BEARISH 📉 : Analyst Warns Bitcoin Nears Final Sell-Off Before Bottom Formation
Market analyst Aaron Dishner warns of a potential final sell-off in Bitcoin, suggesting it is structurally close to capitulation.
Key Insights
- Dishner's analysis compares current conditions to May 2022, indicating a bear market pattern that could lead to new lows.
- He projects a downside target between $35,000 and $40,000, aligning with historical drawdowns of 70% to 75% from all-time highs.
- Historical cycles suggest the current decline may extend at least 52 weeks from its peak, with a potential bottom near October 2026.
- The weekly RSI is deeply oversold, a condition linked to past capitulation events like late 2018 and the COVID crash.
- On-balance volume indicates persistent distribution, resembling pre-cycle low conditions.
Additional Pressures
- Stablecoin dominance, especially USDT and USDC, is reaching resistance levels often associated with Bitcoin sell-offs.
- Macro risks include bearish signals on the S&P 500, with an 8% market pullback plausible, potentially affecting digital assets.
Overall, Dishner believes Bitcoin may soon enter its final sell-off phase, with structural bear market conditions persisting until a potential bottom forms around October.