Crypto Market Declines Signal Potential Warning for Equities
The recent 12% retracement of bitcoin has filled the latest CME gap, linked to its price surge to $95,000. Since the launch of bitcoin futures in December 2017, there have been 80 CME gaps, with only one remaining unfilled at $21,000.
Macroeconomic factors indicate slower U.S. economic growth driven by fiscal cuts and trade uncertainties. Inflation is projected to decline, with the Federal Reserve favoring employment stability over price control. An analyst predicts a potential drop in the S&P 500 to 5700–5500, as the crypto market often experiences downturns before equities.
The Fed is expected to forgo a rate cut in March but may consider a larger cut in May. A return to quantitative easing is anticipated in 2025, influenced by current economic conditions. Notably, the Japanese Yen has strengthened against the U.S. dollar, potentially signaling broader market changes.
What to Watch
Crypto:
- March 5: Ethereum testnet Sepolia undergoes Pectra hard fork upgrade.
- March 5: Circle hosts a webinar on "State of the USDC Economy 2025."
- March 6: MegaETH launches public testnet.
- March 7: President Trump holds White House Crypto Summit.
Macro:
- March 4: China’s National People’s Congress session begins.
- March 5: Eurozone PMI data released; services PMI estimated at 50.7.
- March 5: U.S. ADP employment data estimated at 140K.
Market Movements
- BTC: down 1.62% to $84,001.60 (24hrs: -9.49%)
- ETH: down 0.48% to $2,101.37 (24hrs: -0.48%)
- CoinDesk 20 index down 2.7% to 2,734.47 (24hrs: -10.9%)
- DXY down 0.43% at 106.29
- Gold up 1.18% at $2,924.2/oz
- Silver up 1.28% at $32.44/oz
Technical Analysis
The XRP/BTC pair is nearing the upper limit of a four-year sideways channel, indicating potential for sharp rallies upon breakout.
Token Events
Governance discussions are ongoing for various DAOs, including Paraswap's return of wrapped ether to Bybit and Ampleforth's liquidity provisioning plans.
Derivatives Positioning
Open interest for bitcoin and ether futures has reached lows not seen since August, signaling liquidation risks. The CME basis indicates renewed bullish flows.
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 60.98%
- Hashrate: 810 EH/s
- Total Fees: 6.06 BTC / $550,672
- CME Futures Open Interest: 139,245 BTC
For detailed updates and charts, refer to the provided images and further resources.