BEARISH 📉 : Glassnode says weak spot demand limits Bitcoin rebound around $70k
Bitcoin rebounded toward $70,000. Glassnode says demand is still too thin for a durable recovery.
In a March 25 report, “Awaiting Liquidity,” Glassnode noted easing pressures after the drop to ~$67k: lighter sell-side, improving ETF flows, and reduced dealer imbalances. But muted spot volumes, subdued leverage, and dense supply above price keep the market out of a high-conviction breakout phase (Glassnode).
A fresh accumulation cluster is forming near $70,200 for 1w–1m holders. It builds a support base, but it remains fragile given modest new buyers (Glassnode).
- Key resistance from 1m–3m holders around ~$82,200 (Glassnode)
- Heavier short-term holder supply at ~$93k–$97k (NewsBTC summary)
- Notably dense STH supply above $84k (Glassnode)
On-chain stress is elevated but not panicked. Relative unrealized losses stayed above 15% of market cap for two months, similar to Q2 2022 fear, far from FTX-style capitulation (NewsBTC data).
Realized profitability shrank sharply. Entity-adjusted realized profit (7D MA) fell from ~$3B/day in July 2025 to below $100M now, a >96% drop, implying fewer profitable sellers and weaker fresh capital inflows (Glassnode).
Spot activity remains soft. Exchange volumes barely picked up on the bounce, suggesting selective dip-buying and short-term repositioning, not broad spot demand (Glassnode).
ETF flows turned modestly positive on a 7D basis, signaling early institutional re-engagement, yet still small versus earlier accumulation waves (ETF flows).
Derivatives stay cautious. Perp funding is negative, futures open interest subdued, and options no longer show acute stress but still price downside protection in short tenors; longer-dated positioning looks more balanced (Glassnode).
Watch Friday’s triple expiry. Dealers are concentrated short gamma between $70k and $75k, with about $10B set to roll off. After that, price may react more to macro and liquidity shifts (Glassnode).
At press time, BTC traded at $69,961.
