Analysts warn XRP could drop to $1.09 as losses widen

XRP holders sit on steep unrealized losses. On-chain shows a 41% average drawdown, and a fresh post‑FTX MVRV low, while a popular trader warns of another leg down.

Santiment says the average active wallet over the past year is down 41%. It’s the lowest MVRV for XRP since November 2022, per their alert. Source: Santiment (X).

Santiment adds that deeply negative average returns can mean “blood in the streets,” implying lower-than-average risk for adding exposure as competing traders sit in losses. Source.

Glassnode shows just 43.4% of supply in profit with price near $1.33. That’s the lowest share since July 2024. Source: Glassnode (X).

Earlier, Glassnode flagged losses even around $2.15, calling the market “top-heavy and structurally fragile,” dominated by late buyers. Details.

Trader CasiTrades expects a wave‑3 drop next. She says the ceasefire‑driven bounce is done after a clean 0.618 retrace, keeping the larger bearish structure intact. Target: around $1.09, with risk of acceleration. Source and prior view. Context on the ceasefire‑led push: market move.

Spot price: ~$1.33, down over 3% in 24 hours. CoinMarketCap.

Headline
Santiment: XRP MVRV hits post‑FTX low; Glassnode sees 43.4% supply in profit; analyst eyes wave‑3 to ~$1.09, risk to $0.87