Fidelity reports Bitcoin 5-year CAGR trails gold for three months

Fidelity says Bitcoin’s 5-year CAGR fell below gold’s for three straight months in early 2026. This is only the second such crossover on record, per its Chart Chatter.

In an X post, analyst Zack Wainwright notes BTC’s five-year CAGR has trended lower as price rose, leading to the current break below gold. “We have now seen three straight months to start the year of CAGR below Gold’s,” he said in the post.

He linked the only prior instance to the last cycle low. “One such month… in December 2022, when Bitcoin’s price was bottoming out… around $15,000,” Wainwright said, adding the 2026 stretch is longer at three months source.

Fidelity frames the period as a bear market, making the duration notable versus the single month in 2022 NewsBTC summary.

Gold’s side matters. Spot gold closed at $2,156.61 on Mar 18, 2024, rose to $2,999.96 on Mar 18, 2025, and hit $5,012.45 on Mar 17, 2026. That’s about +67.1% YoY and +132.4% over two years price data.

Wainwright stressed the historical balance. “Overall, Bitcoin has remained above Gold’s CAGR for the majority of its history… this is truly a unique instance” original clip.

For markets, Fidelity calls it a rare exception in early 2026 and leaves open whether it’s a late-bear anomaly or a sign of slower, more mature growth ahead context.