Bitcoin trades near $75K as analysts debate $50K bottom

Analysts eye $50k “flush” in Bitcoin; institutions may cap drawdown

Bitcoin is down 40–44% from its $126,198 ATH. Some traders still call for a final drop to $50k, while others see a higher floor forming.

Prior cycles cut deeper. 2017 fell over 80%. 2021 dropped 77%. That backdrop fuels today’s fear around Bitcoin.

Nick Ruck of LVRG Research flagged $50k as a “last major buying opportunity.” He called it a “healthy cycle reset.” He also noted this cycle differs: institutions now buy consistently. He said there’s “a chance this cycle might not reach an idealized 60% drawdown.”

“I don’t think $60,000 was the bottom,” wrote Ivan Liljeqvist. “Trend is still down.” His post argues small bounces fade on higher time frames. Source: Ivan on Tech on X.

Merlijn Enkelaar mapped three phases. “$70K is the decision. Hold it: manipulation is short. Lose it: $50K first.” Source: Merlijn The Trader on X.

Another analyst, “symbiote,” called HTF structure “super bearish.” He sees a possible move to ~$80k before a “final huge dump” to $59k or $50k. Source: symbiote on X.

Geopolitics drove sharp swings. A brief US–Iran ceasefire popped Bitcoin above $75k. Talks then failed. A US naval blockade of Hormuz hit risk assets and prices slipped under $71k. Source: Al Jazeera liveblog on the Hormuz blockade.

Inflation added pressure. Hot CPI on Friday weighed on risk.

At current levels around $72,500–$74,600, the drawdown sits near 40–44%, below a typical 60% bear. Source: Bitcoin price reference.

ETF demand is the counterweight. Institutional flows and Bitcoin ETF inflows on Coinglass keep a bid in the market. That may limit downside versus prior retail-led crashes.

Key levels traders watch:
- $80k bounce zone on HTF, per “symbiote”
- $70k decision area, per Merlijn
- $59k and $50k targets for a final flush, per multiple traders

Bitcoin tagged ~$66k in early April before rebounding. Whether that low holds, or a deeper leg to $59k–$50k arrives, remains unresolved.