Fed hike odds and $465M ETF outflows push Bitcoin to $63,100

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Bitcoin drops to $63,100 on hike odds and $465M ETF outflows

Bitcoin fell 3% to $63,100, an 11‑day low, as traders priced a roughly one‑in‑three chance of a Fed hike on July 29.

Flows confirm it. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $465M in outflows on July 23–24, plus a $11M outflow on July 27, snapping a seven‑day inflow streak and erasing July’s fragile recovery.

BTC slides to $63,100 amid hike odds and ETF outflows

Markets assign ~33–40% odds to a surprise hike per prediction markets Polymarket.
Citadel Securities expects a 25 bp hike, framing it as credibility‑enhancing for Chair Kevin Warsh, keeping the meeting’s read hawkish even without a move.
Macro de‑risking leads; higher rate odds raise the cost of holding non‑yielding risk assets, prompting trims ahead of FOMC.
BTC’s July rebound was weak. The $65,000–$65,500 band capped rallies after a ~50% drawdown from the October 2025 ATH of $126,000.
Legislative tailwinds fade. The Clarity Act boost stalled as macro repricing dominates.

Key levels and structure

Support to watch: $62,000 next, with stronger demand near $60,000, per Orbit Markets’ Caroline Mauron.
Trend gauge: a sustained close above the 200‑DMA at $72,001 is needed to neutralize medium‑term downside, says IG’s Tony Sycamore.
On‑chain shows long‑term holder capitulation and coins moving to exchanges, consistent with forced selling CoinSpeaker analysis.

FOMC scenarios

Fed holds with dovish tilt: removes main headwind, shifts focus back to the Clarity Act and spot ETF demand. Near‑term target returns to $65,000–$65,500.
25 bp hike: likely accelerates ETF outflows beyond July 23–24 pace, raises odds of a $60,000 test where retail interest and options activity are concentrated.

Time and impact markers