Alex Thorn cuts 2026 CLARITY Act odds to 60% amid Senate bottleneck

Thorn cuts CLARITY Act odds to 60%. July 4 Senate push looks shaky.

Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn lowered his 2026 passage odds for the CLARITY Act from 75% to 60%. He cites a jammed Senate schedule. His note and his thread detail the shift.

Next week tilts to FISA work after a failed reauth vote. That squeezes floor time for crypto market-structure. Thorn says the hurdle is time, not votes.

Two issues remain open. Lawmaker ethics rules. Illicit finance provisions. No resolution yet.

The bill would settle SEC versus CFTC lines. Tokens classed as commodities go to the CFTC. Securities stay with the SEC. That would reshape exchange operations and project compliance.

Supporters argue clear federal boundaries cut uncertainty and curb talent flight abroad.

Senator Cynthia Lummis flagged July 4 as a marker for movement. Thorn’s revision pressures that window. His view reflects calendar strain, not fading support.

Key takeaways for crypto investors:
- Odds drop to 60% from 75% per Thorn’s note. Source
- FISA business likely dominates next week, delaying floor time. Source
- Ethics and illicit finance pieces remain unresolved.
- SEC and CFTC split in the bill would drive new exchange and issuer playbooks.