The Kobeissi Letter
Fed decision could shock markets as traders expect rate cut
If the Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged, it would mark the largest deviation from market expectations since 1994. President Trump...
Markets expect first Fed rate hike since July 2023 today
Rate Hike Odds and Precedent
Markets assign a 93% probability that the Federal Reserve will announce its first rate hike since July 2023 today. In...
European Union proposes making Canada first associate member of the bloc
The European Union has proposed designating Canada as its first “associate member,” signaling deeper political, economic, and security alignment...
US Senate rejects Crypto Clarity Act, stalling US crypto regulation efforts
The Crypto Clarity Act failed to pass in the US Senate, halting an effort to set clearer federal rules for cryptocurrencies in the United States,...
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Saudi Arabia halts Yanbu oil loadings after pipeline attacks, Brent nears $110
Saudi Arabia suspended oil loadings at Yanbu, its main Red Sea port, after attacks on the East-West pipeline, reported by Reuters. Yanbu exports up...
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Global bond yields hit multi-decade highs, China maintains low borrowing costs
Global sovereign yields have surged to levels last seen decades ago, while China’s government borrowing costs sit near record lows: a sharp...
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US 10-year Treasury yield hits 5.04%, highest since July 2007
The 10-year US Treasury note yield rose to 5.04%, the highest level since July 2007. The average interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage reached...
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Houthis seize Yemen’s Red Sea coast, threatening Bab el-Mandeb oil flows
Houthi forces have taken control of Yemen’s entire Red Sea coast, effectively giving them control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Crude oil flows...
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Trump says Iran wants deal, US considers talks with Tehran
President Trump stated that Iran wants to make a deal and that the United States is open to the concept of doing so. He said he will determine...
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Trump says Ukraine and Russia agree to avoid energy targets
President Trump stated that Ukraine and Russia agreed to refrain from striking energy infrastructure and said the recent surge in diesel prices is...
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Trump rejects AI safety proposals, says strong president should oversee AI
President Trump rejected calls for AI safety regulation, stating the only control AI needs is a “strong and smart president.” He said there is a...
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Markets face expected rate hike, oil risk, diesel surge in Q4
Markets face conflicting forces into Q4: tightening monetary policy and energy supply risks versus strong corporate earnings growth.
Policy and...
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US diesel prices hit record $6.20 per gallon, up 78%
US diesel prices reached a record 6.20 dollars per gallon, up 78 percent over nine months. California set a record at 8.14 dollars per gallon, with...
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Attacks shut key Middle East oil routes, threaten 30 million barrels
Multiple Middle East oil routes are offline or at risk, putting a large share of global supply in jeopardy relative to a roughly 100 million barrel...
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Saudi East-West pipeline closure risks 4% of global oil supply
Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline has been shut after recent strikes. Reuters reports that if it is not reopened this week, about 4% of global oil...
