The Kobeissi Letter
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Trump rejects AI safety proposals, says strong president should oversee AI
President Trump rejected calls for AI safety regulation, stating the only control AI needs is a “strong and smart president.” He said there is a...
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Markets face expected rate hike, oil risk, diesel surge in Q4
Markets face conflicting forces into Q4: tightening monetary policy and energy supply risks versus strong corporate earnings growth.
Policy and...
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US diesel prices hit record $6.20 per gallon, up 78%
US diesel prices reached a record 6.20 dollars per gallon, up 78 percent over nine months. California set a record at 8.14 dollars per gallon, with...
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Attacks shut key Middle East oil routes, threaten 30 million barrels
Multiple Middle East oil routes are offline or at risk, putting a large share of global supply in jeopardy relative to a roughly 100 million barrel...
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Saudi East-West pipeline closure risks 4% of global oil supply
Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline has been shut after recent strikes. Reuters reports that if it is not reopened this week, about 4% of global oil...
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President Trump pledges $5,000 payment to all US adults
President Donald Trump said a proposed $5,000 “dividend” for all U.S. adults “will happen,” adding: “When I say something, I mean it.”
The...
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US CPI release whipsaws markets; stocks rise, 10Y yield falls
US CPI data triggered sharp market volatility. Stocks and gold initially fell at 8:30 a.m. ET, then recovered their losses and moved into positive...
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US inflation raised September Fed rate hike odds to 79%
Markets now assign a 79% probability to a US Federal Reserve interest-rate hike in September after August CPI inflation reached 3.4%.
This marks a...
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Инфляция в США в августе составила 3,4% и совпала с прогнозом
August CPI inflation registered 3.4% year-over-year, matching expectations. Core CPI fell to 2.4%, also matching expectations. Month-over-month CPI...
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Kobeissi Letter says markets overestimate September Fed rate hike odds
The post asserts that President Trump set rate cuts as a requirement for choosing the next Federal Reserve Chair. Under this premise, a Chair Kevin...
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Oracle beats estimates on AI demand, shares jump over 8%
Oracle shares rose over 8% after reporting earnings that exceeded expectations, driven by demand for AI. The move signals strong enterprise spending...
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US 10-year Treasury yield tops 4.90% for first time since November 2023
The US 10Y Treasury yield has moved above 4.90% for the first time since November 2023, up 95 bps since the Iran conflict began and 10 bps since the...
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August US PPI inflation hits 5.4% and lifts Fed rate hike odds
August PPI inflation rose to 5.4%, above expectations of 5.3%. Core PPI increased to 4.6%, the highest since June 2026. July headline and core PPI...
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Trump promises $5,000 to every US adult if Republicans win midterms
President Trump stated he will issue a $5,000 “dividend” to every adult U.S. citizen if Republicans win the midterm elections. With an estimated 245...
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Trump rules out Iran deal as Brent crude tops $101
President Trump stated the United States is not seeking a deal with Iran and that oil prices will not fall until right after U.S. midterm elections....
