Vitalik Buterin Warns Superintelligent AI May Emerge in Six Years
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has expressed concerns about the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI), warning that superintelligent AI might emerge sooner than expected. He emphasizes the urgent need for strategies to counter potential risks, focusing on "defensive acceleration" to ensure responsible use of AI technology.
In a blog post, Buterin outlined proposals to prevent harmful advancements in AI. He advocates for decentralized AI systems closely tied to human decision-making, aiming to reduce the risk of misuse, particularly by military forces. He cites the deployment of AI in warfare, such as in Ukraine and Gaza, and warns that military exemptions in AI regulations could pose significant threats.
Buterin estimates that artificial general intelligence (AGI) could be just three years away, with superintelligence potentially emerging three years after that. He stresses that humanity must actively slow down harmful developments alongside accelerating beneficial advancements, as unchecked AI could lead to catastrophic outcomes, including human extinction.
To address these risks, Buterin suggests several measures. He calls for liability rules to hold users accountable for AI system utilization, arguing that end users ultimately decide the technology's applications. If liability measures prove insufficient, he proposes "soft pause" mechanisms to temporarily slow dangerous AI development, potentially reducing global compute capacity by 90-99% for one to two years during critical periods to prepare for emerging challenges.
Another key suggestion involves controlling AI hardware. Buterin proposes integrating chips into AI systems that require weekly authorization from three international bodies, including at least one non-military entity, to maintain global oversight and prevent misuse.
Despite presenting these ideas, Buterin acknowledges that his strategies are temporary and imperfect but insists on the necessity of immediate action to manage the risks posed by rapidly advancing AI technologies.
Buterin's warnings highlight the increasing concern about AI safety and the need for global cooperation to address these pressing issues. Ensuring AI remains under human control is essential to minimizing catastrophic outcomes, which will require collective effort and vigilance.